Fantasy

Published on March 14th, 2013 | by Nick Bragg

3

Value Arms in Later Rounds

Everybody knows you want Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw on your fantasy team, but realistically, you’re going to end up filling the back end of your pitching rotation with some guys that aren’t as well known and aren’t nearly as good. The time you put in before your fantasy drafts researching your back-end starters and late-round relievers can have a profound effect on your roster as a whole. I’ve taken the time to find some hidden gems in the later rounds that are largely overlooked. Each player is numbered with their average draft position on ESPN Fantasy Baseball at the time of the posting of this article. Hopefully these player snapshots will help shed some light on some pitchers that I feel are very underrated in this year’s fantasy baseball draft.

Starting Pitchers

Jeff Samardzija (ADP #154)

Samardzija has improved his control quite a bit over the last two seasons.  In the last three years his BB/9 ratios have been 9.31 in 2010, 5.11 in 2011 and 2.89 in 2012. In that same span, his K/9 rate has bumped from mediocre to excellent. He threw 4.19 K/9 in 2010, 8.90 in 2011 and 9.27 in 2012.  As you can see, Samardzija is a young pitcher that is showing constant improvement. With a weak lineup in Chicago, he probably won’t approach 20 wins this season, but a pitcher that has the very real potential of throwing 200+ quality innings with a high number of K’s is always worth a look.

Brandon McCarthy (ADP#220)

McCarthy remade his career in 2011 with the Oakland A’s when he embraced Sabermetrics and changed his approach. He went from a pitcher that averaged over a 4.5 ERA and gave up the long-ball at over a 1.2 HR/9 rate, to a ground-ball pitcher with under 0.7 HR/9 and an ERA in the low three’s over the last two seasons in Oakland. Now, McCarthy moves to Arizona and looks to slot in at the number two spot in the rotation.  Pitching in an easier division with more run support certainly can’t hurt. If McCarthy can stay healthy, I expect him to throw 180+ innings and keep his ERA around the low three’s.

Andy Pettitte (ADP #218)

Pettitte will start the season at the ripe age of 40. Normally I wouldn’t target a 40 year old with health concerns, but when he has pitched recently, he’s been lights out. Pettitte only pitched 75.1 innings last year, but owned a sweet 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, which are his best numbers since he pitched for the Astros in 2005. On top of that, he will get quite a bit of run support from the Yankees, which will help him get a fair number of wins. I very much doubt that you will get 200 innings out of Pettitte, but he can certainly help your ratios when he does start.

Josh Beckett (ADP #219)

Beckett put up stellar numbers in 2011 with the Red Sox. He pitched 193 innings with 175 strikeouts, along with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Last year, however, he was a fantasy bust. He pitched 170.1 innings with only 132 strikeouts, with an ERA of 4.65 and a WHIP of 1.33. What that stat line doesn’t tell you is that Beckett was a completely different pitcher after he was traded to the Dodgers.

Was Beckett’s poor performance in Boston mostly due to clubhouse problems and park factors, or did he just get lucky in a small sample size with the Dodgers? It may be worth the late-round gamble to see if he’s turned it around since joining his new team in LA.

Relief Pitchers

Casey Janssen (ADP #216)                                   

Janssen is the reliever that I’m targeting the most in fantasy drafts this year. He has been dominant out of the Blue Jays bullpen in the last two years with an ERA just over 2.40, and a K/9 rate around 9. Not only is Janssen a solid reliever, but the new-look Jays should score plenty of runs this year. Don’t be surprised to see Janssen in the top-five on the player rater among relievers this year. Pitchers like Janssen that can be had in the very late rounds of fantasy drafts are exactly why you should never pay high draft picks for saves.

Grant Balfour (ADP #181)

It’s only recently that he earned the closer gig, but Balfour has been an incredibly productive pitcher out of the bullpen in his last three years with Tampa and Oakland.

With the offensive improvements that the A’s have made this offseason, they’ll likely win 90+ games again this year. That could mean a lot of save opportunities for Balfour. It’s a wonder why he isn’t more valued in fantasy drafts.

Jason Grilli (ADP #190)

There are two things that I really like about Jason Grilli this year.

#1 – He has been very consistent over the last two seasons with an ERA under 2.75 and a WHIP around 1.16. Grilli has also managed a K/9 rate over 12.5 in that same time. While strikeouts aren’t a huge factor when considering which relievers to draft, it never hurts to have a few extra K’s, especially if you miss out on drafting a top starting pitcher early in the draft.

#2 – There is very little competition for the closer role among other pitchers in Pittsburgh’s bullpen. The next reliever in line for saves if Grilli falters is Mark Melancon. Melancon was productive with the Astros in 2011, but was terrible with the Red Sox last year. He was even demoted to Triple-A Pawtucket for his poor performance at one point during last season.

Cover Photo: Andy Pettitte by Keith Allison

Body Photo: Casey Janssen by Keith Allison

Value Bats in Later Rounds→

Tags: andy pettitte, brandon mccarthy, casey janssen, fantasy baseball, fantasy baseball sleepers, grant balfour, jason grilli, Jeff Samardzija, josh beckett, underrated pitchers, underrated players, underrated relief pitchers

About the Author

Nick Bragg is a writer and co-founder of sportperspective.com.  He is currently serving active duty in the U.S. Air Force, which has taken him all over the United States and abroad and to the Pacific Northwest which he now calls home. Nick grew up in a small mountain town 30 minutes outside of Yosemite National Park, in California, and loves all San Francisco sports.  His favorite teams are the San Francisco Giants and 49ers, and since moving to the Puget Sound, he has also grown to love the Seattle Mariners. Nick is currently working on an Associate of Arts degree at Pierce College in Washington and will transfer to another institute of higher learning to complete a Bachelor of Arts Degree in Journalism this coming Autumn. Follow Nick on Twitter: @seattlebragg

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